The Known and the Unknown: How to Navigate the 'New Normal' in Air Cargo
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The international trade and logistics sector has always been complex, but the nature of that complexity is shifting. Beyond simply moving goods, logistics providers must now navigate a dense web of factors including transport security, evolving compliance, and operational hurdles that seems to grow denser by the year.
To effectively manage this environment, it helps to categorise these friction points into two distinct buckets: the ‘Anticipated’ and the ‘Non-Anticipated’. How a logistics provider prepares for the former, and reacts to the latter, will define their profitability in the years ahead.
The Non-Anticipated: When Disruption Cascades
"Non-anticipated" complexities are the operational headaches that keep logistics providers awake at night. High on this list are air cargo flight disruptions.
We are seeing a clear trend: an increase in extreme weather events in recent years is becoming a primary driver of these disruptions. The business impact here is severe. In 2025, weather-related incidents alone impacted 39% of travellers and consequently a large amount cargo flows — a significant jump from 21% in 2024. A weather (or other operational) delay causes more damage than a single late package; the consequences cascade through the supply chain, triggering missed slots, increased warehousing costs, and the erosion of client trust due to unexpected delays in cargo availability.
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The Non-Anticipated: The Regulatory Tightrope
While "anticipated" complexities such as regulatory changes are theoretically easier to plan for, they pose a different kind of threat. The challenge here is the constant state of flux. It seems that just as one system is implemented, another mandate arrives.
We are currently navigating two notable shifts:
- The US ACAS Expansion: The US Department of Homeland Security’s Interim Final Ruling (IFR) has expanded the mandatory data elements required for the Air Cargo Advance Screening (ACAS) program.
- EU ICS2 Updates: The European Commission has expanded prohibited cargo descriptions under the Import Control System 2 (ICS2).
These mandates are driven by a range of factors including the explosion of cross-border e-commerce, which is poised to grow from $168.5 billion in 2025 to over $917 billion by 2033. In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region generated over 43% of this revenue, creating a massive volume of individual data filings.
Failure to comply with these mandates goes beyond a simple administrative hurdle; it can result in a hard stop for cargo, leading to fines and rejected shipments that eat directly into margins and credibility.
The Market Reality: Growth Demands Efficiency
The margin for error is shrinking because the volume of trade is growing. The industry must be ready to scale.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, recently highlighted this reality while discussing the upcoming World Cargo Symposium. He noted that despite geopolitical uncertainty, the industry is seeing a 3.4% growth pattern in air cargo demand for 2025, with similar trends expected for 2026.
As Walsh points out, "speed and reliability across the supply chain" are becoming more valuable as trade lanes shift. In a market growing at over 3%, reliance on manual data entry or rigid legacy systems has evolved from a simple inefficiency into a critical competitive liability.
As of 2025, a stark "digitisation gap" remains: 73% of freight procurement teams still rely on manual spreadsheets and disconnected systems. Only 23% of freight forwarders have digitised more than 75% of their core processes.
Standardisation is the Strategy
As compliance needs expand, the air cargo sector’s best defense is the standardisation of process. This has been IATA’s mission for decades, and for good reason: consistent, industry-wide data exchange is the only way to rise to these challenges.
However, standardisation requires the right foundation. It requires a shift away from reactive fixes toward a proactive digital infrastructure that can absorb change, whether that’s a sudden storm or a new compliance ruling.
Simplifying the Complex
This need for adaptability is driving the next generation of industry technology. At Yojee, we believe that the answer lies in platforms designed specifically to handle this duality of anticipated and non-anticipated change.
Our vision is focused on ‘Simplifying the Complex’. Through our MOSAIC platform, we are building a diverse team of industry and technical experts dedicated to creating the solution agility the market needs. As the industry prepares for the remainder of 2026 and beyond, we look forward to delivering technology that doesn’t just manage complexity, but turns it into a competitive advantage.
Join the conversation on how we are navigating these changes at #BePartOfSomething.
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